A new poll on Denver's crowded race for mayor strongly suggests that candidates who position their campaign as the answer to the city's high crime rate would attract support among voters.
Voters also oppose the idea of "defunding" the police, although it maintains "soft support" among Democrats, according to the recent the poll.
Former Denver District Attorney Mitch Morrissey said a candidate with a "good plan" on how to approach the rise in crime in Denver should garner a lot of support from voters.
"The poll also indicates that folks are looking for someone with a willingness to follow through with a crime prevention strategy," he said.
Conducted early this month by Cygnal and Chism Strategies on behalf of a group in Denver, the poll shows that crime and improving public safety sit atop the list of issues that preoccupy Denverites.
Also high on their list is homelessness, which has spiraled out of control in metro Denver in the last few years.
“My car has been broken into multiple times and I live in a very nice neighborhood. Denver is gross,” the poll quoted one of the respondents as saying. The resident identified himself as a somewhat liberal unaffiliated voter.
“Scary, unsettling, (and) fearful," said a woman, who identified herself as a somewhat conservative Republican. "Prohibits us from doing things in city. Prohibits my daughter from living a teenage life.”
The poll shows that a majority of respondents (63%) feel safe in Denver, but 36% don't.
Notably, younger respondents and older residents feel safer compared to those ages in between. For all age groups, in fact, a majority say they feel safe in the city — except for female respondents between 50 and 64. In their case, a majority (54%) of whom say they don't feel safe in Denver.
An overwhelming majority of respondents (74%) view crime as a major problem or even crisis, while they say homelessness is even more dire, with 96% of voters saying it's a major problem and nearly half labeling it as a “crisis.”
"Voters do not think Denver is doing enough to solve these issues," the poll's memo says, noting that 32% gave the city's efforts to reduce homelessness an “F.” Roughly the same number (26%) also gave the city a failing grade in its efforts to reduce crime.
Michael Dino, a political expert who served as campaign manager for former mayor Wellington Webb, told The Denver Gazette that all the the "top tier" candidates have offered a "reasonable public safety approach, and voters will give them the benefit of the doubt that as mayor, protecting Denver citizens will be a priority."
"More importantly, what voters will endeavor to discern is who has the expertise and competency to actually implement their crime fighting plan," he added, responding to the poll's results.
The poll highlights anew Denver's struggle to curb crime and the debate over how best to tackle it. A recent study by the Common Sense Institute, for example, noted that the city's crime rates remain worse than before the onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic, making it among the most crime-ridden metro areas in America, particularly when it comes to car theft.
The nearly 15,000 cars that were stolen in Denver last year could fill all the parking lots surrounding Empower Field during three Broncos home games.
Colorado's crime scene prompted Gov. Jared Polis last month to challenge Colorado's legislators to pass tougher penalties on car theft, noting the crime has directly affected both policymakers and members of the public alike.
Some have traced the crime spike to what they described as Colorado's "criminal-friendly" approach to public policy. In a 2021 report that sought to quantify the cost of crime to Coloradans, Morrissey and George Brauchler, also a former district attorney, argued that Colorado's prevailing public policy direction — to "discourage the jailing of those arrested for committing crimes and to reduce the severity of punishment for those convicted" — has resulted in "unintended, albeit predictable consequences."
"As a result of multiple reforms, the trends across bond practices, parole rates, and incarceration levels, all point to a system tipping further away from accountability," they wrote in 2021.
Responding to the Cygnal and Chism Strategies poll, veteran Democratic strategist Ian Silverii countered that, while it's clear crime is an important issue in the race, voters rejected the "conservative politics of fearmongering around this issue" as a strategy in last year's midterm elections.
"Colorado as a whole and Denver, specifically, has very sophisticated, smart, and educated voters who will be looking for someone to solve this issue with compassion and intelligence, not harassment, violence, and the same failed policies of long ago," he said.
The poll also shows that 50.3% of voters oppose "defunding the police." The opposition is particularly pronounced among unaffiliated voters and Republicans.
Support for "defunding the police" is highest in the 18 to 49 age groups.
Meanwhile, two-thirds of voters back increasing the Denver Police Department’s budget. Among Democrats, support for a bigger budget for the police stands at 63%.
The poll also shows that outgoing Mayor Michael Hancock’s image sits at negative 22, while Gov. Jared Polis' favorability rating stands at 53%.
The Denver City Council is also unpopular.
The race for mayor is wide open, according to the poll. Kelly Brough leads with just under 8% of the vote while seeing some bipartisan appeal. However, 60% of voters remain undecided.
Mike Johnston narrowly leads the second-choice ballot.
Andy Rougeot, the only Republican running in the race, secured 2.8% of the vote, although he enjoys the support of 10% of Republican respondents.
The poll, conducted between Feb. 9 and 10 among 405 respondents, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.86 percentage points. That means the results could swing in either direction in significant ways, further scrambling the candidates' rankings.
Denver’s all-mail municipal election is set for April 4. If none of the candidates secures more than 50% of the votes, the top two candidates will face off in a runoff election in June.
