Drought threatens Colorado River hydropower, major source of renewable energy

PAGE, ARIZ. • Soulful notes from a Native American flute float over the vast valley on the backside of the Glen Canyon Dam, which interrupts the once mighty Colorado River.

At the tourist overlook, a teen — his phone in hand, playing the music — hops from one phyllo-layered sandstone outcropping to another, where river, rock and sky unite to form a perfect picture.

He stops, takes a deep breath and marvels at the orange, gold and pink streaks of the setting sun.

What does he see?

“Beauty,” he says.

The one-word answer is as simple and as complex as the Colorado River, which meanders hundreds of feet below the scenic spot in the Arizona desert, winding on a circuitous path from the Western Slope of the Rocky Mountains into Mexico.

Drought conditions of the past 22 years have lowered water levels substantially, prompting the federal Bureau of Land Reclamation to authorize emergency releases from upstream tributaries, reduce annual dam discharges and demand cutbacks from the seven states in the Colorado River Basin.

The shrinking supply of water that nourishes tens of millions of people in the Southwest is effecting animals, crop production, recreation, tourism and hydropower generation from dams including Glen Canyon, which created Lake Powell.

The situation is happening as federal, state and local governments push for reduced reliance on fossil fuels and an increase of green-energy sources, in an effort to curb the nation’s changing climate.

Fewer coal-fired and nuclear power plants mean more need for hydro, wind and solar power. At the same time, electric demand is rising from the region’s growing population, additional air conditioning consumption from higher temperatures and an expanding fleet of electric-powered vehicles, as automakers work to comply with federal requirements.

In a letter sent in April to Colorado River Basin state leaders, requesting their cooperation and feedback, Tanya Trujillo, assistant secretary for water and science at the Department of the Interior, said the risk of not being able to generate hydropower is elevated, which could also affect delivering drinking water to residents in Page as well as the Navajo Nation’s nearby LeChee Chapter.

“We are approaching operating conditions for which we have only very limited actual operating experience,” she wrote, adding that officials hope to delay or avoid operational conditions below critical water levels with emergency tactics.

States were given a deadline of Tuesday to submit plans for cutting water usage next year by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. That's also when the Bureau of Land Reclamation, which controls the Colorado River, will issue a new forecast for 2023. 

While the agency is sounding the alarm about the prolonged dry conditions, some who work and play on the river say the call is not as grim and believe the river has become a political tool.

Rain and drought cycles ebb and flow like the tides, says Glen Canyon Dam Operations Supervisor Kent “Kato” Miyagishima. And he expects Lake Powell inflow to rebound.

The Bureau cites the Colorado River's status as is one of the nation’s most endangered, and says that the current drought is the worst in at least 1,200 years. And weather patterns don’t indicate water elevation will rise to previous levels anytime soon.

Bryan Hill, general manager for Page Power and Water, believes serious mitigation should have happened sooner and that improving water management and curbing overuse is necessary to balance availability of water with what’s being expended.

“There’s no magical way to come up with water,” said Hill, formerly an engineer with Arizona Public Service.

“Globally, people are going to have to understand it’s a resource we’re going to have to share, no matter who has the rights,” he said. “California says they have superior rights, so you’re going to water your golf course while people in Phoenix don’t have enough drinking water?

“People need to get more cooperative. We’ve been gluttons with our water.”

Goal: Don't let river 'go dry'

Water moves with purpose through the deep chasms of Glen Canyon Dam, which was fully completed in 1964. Lake Powell mushroomed out of the controlled flow, to save water from the Colorado River for consumption and energy.

Electricity is a byproduct of storing the water but not the main function of Glen Canyon Dam, Miyagishima said. He worked his way up from janitor nearly 27 years ago to oversee seven dams in the chain, which includes Blue Mesa Dam that impounds the Gunnison River in Colorado.

From its origins to today, Glen Canyon dam continues to do its intended job, Miyagishima said: “Our goal is not letting the Colorado River go dry.”

Government officials have been worried about that for 100 years, when water compacts began being formalized with leaders from Wyoming, Colorado, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, California, along with tribal nations and Mexico. The 1922 Colorado River Compact, as amended and appended through the decades, is the so-called "law of the river." 

Now, the needle of possibility of a dangerously drying river seems to be moving toward certainty.

In late June, Lake Powell’s water storage was at 26% of its capacity of 25.2 million acre-feet, Miyagishima said, which he defines as “really low.”

In fact, the level has hit record lows not seen since the lake was filled in 1963.

But it’s better than May 13, when the lake elevation descended to its lowest point of 3,524 feet above sea level — frighteningly close to the minimum power pool of 3,490 feet.

“When we get to that level, we take several measures to improve our efficiency,” Miyagishima said.

Officials are trying to avoid the water sinking to 3,370 feet in elevation, what’s known as “dead pool,” when water is too low to reach outlets and can't flow downstream from the dam, he said, and producing electricity is no longer viable.

Federal hydrologists predict a watershed moment is looming and forecast a 23% to 25% chance that Glen Canyon Dam will hit dead pool and lose generational capacity each year from 2023 through 2026.

That would be a big deal, Miyagishima said.

“If you’re having a crunchy salad in New York this year, you’re probably getting it from California,” he said, “which produces one-fourth of the nation’s produce.”

Crops could be jeopardized, which likely would lead to higher prices at stores and limited supplies. And millions of electric customers could feel the pinch in power delivery.

This summer, only four of eight massive generators and turbines are online churning out electricity at Glen Canyon Dam at a much lower rate of 90 megawatts, compared with 165 megawatts at full operation. Inflow is at 60% of average, according to the Bureau of Land Reclamation.

See the “bathtub ring?” Miyagishima asks at a vantage point in the dam’s visitors’ center, which gives an expansive view from 700 feet above the river.

The white line visible along steep canyon walls indicates where the level used to be — about 160 feet higher than its current elevation.

The decrease has exposed spillways and left boat ramps dangling in the air far above the surface.

Rock formations, old train tracks and remnants of a cement plant not seen in the nearly 60 years since Lake Powell was birthed have been uncovered by receding waters. New camping sites and water channels have emerged.

“Right now, a lot of things are uncovered,” Miyagishima said. “It’s like a whole new lake.”

Miyagishima stands on the side of optimism, though. By late June, runoff had increased the water level by 14.7 feet, he said. Last week, Powell was was holding fairly steady at an elevation of 3,535 feet.

Last summer, the level flatlined for Lake Powell and Lake Mead — an outgrowth of the 1930s-era Hoover Dam in Nevada. Between the two dams, “We didn’t lose or gain any water,” Miyagishima said, which he called a “remarkable feat.”

With the monsoon season delivering some moisture, Miyagishima believes Glen Canyon Dam has dodged dire straits this year.

He remembers a “full pool” — 3,700 feet above sea level — when the lake drew him to settle in the area.

“It’s still a huge lake,” Miyagishima said. “The recreation, the boating, the fishing has been phenomenal for us. This is a gem. To this day, after all these years, I never get tired of it.”

Where kids once played

“Dam” a female voice intones when the elevator arrives at the bottom of the facility, and the letters D-A-M flash in blue on a sign.

During what used to be commonplace but is now a rare interior tour of Glen Canyon Dam, longtime employees remember roller skating on the slick tile floors deep inside, where 2.5 miles of thick concrete tunnels jut underground and into the water.

Some of the spotless hallways are 25 feet under water. Some extend horizontally into the town of Page, to transport equipment, parts and materials back and forth.

Decades ago, when temperatures topped 100 degrees Fahrenheit outside, parents would drop off their children at the dam to play, and they’d soar through the lower maze's cool 60-degree air, Miyagishima said.

The terrorist attacks of 9/11 raised fears that the nation’s electric grid was in peril, shutting down unfettered access to the dam and power plant complex. Government officials further restricted entry with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Examples of the site’s machinery, educational signs, old photos of the construction and vintage radio communication boxes remain outside and inside, from top to bottom of the engineering feat that is the dam.

In the late 1950s, workers started drilling at one end of the bedrock and at the same time on the other end, Miyagishima said. As they blasted their way through and met in the middle, they were only 2 inches off each other.

Another conversation piece: Lady Bird Johnson wanted grass planted outside on the lowest level to tamper dust and not have people look at a pile of dirt, the story goes.

A plaque shows the first lady standing on the well-groomed 2.5-acre plot of grass while dedicating the dam on Sept. 22, 1966.

Hydropower plants generate electricity by harnessing the kinetic energy of water as it flows from reservoirs, such as Lake Powell and Lake Mead, through the tall dams and back into the river.

Pipes 15 feet in diameter usher water inside the Glen Canyon plant, where massive turbines rotate at 150 rpms and can accelerate from completely shut down to full production in under five minutes, Miyagishima said. Astonishing in that it takes days for a coal- or natural gas-fired power plant to go from offline to up and running, he said.

A large shaft connects rotors with blades and 91,500-pound turbine runners to generate a magnetic force that converts the mechanical energy of the water's flow into electrical energy, which is transferred via high-voltage transmission lines to substations.

Most of Glen Canyon Dam power goes south to Phoenix, north to Utah and east to New Mexico, Miyagishima said. The Western Area Power Administration, which distributes and markets power for the nation's Department of Energy, is headquartered in Lakewood, Colo., and also may distribute Glen Canyon power to Colorado, he said.

Threatened by warming

Carbon-neutral hydropower is one of the oldest and largest sources of renewable energy; more than 2,000 years ago Greeks were recorded in history as using water wheels to pound wheat into flour.

Hydropower accounts for 31.5% of total domestic renewable electricity generation and 53% of the West's renewable energy supply. It produces 6.3% of total electricity generation nationwide, according to the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, and supplied 16% of the West's electricity last year. That this critical tool against climate warming is also being threatened by warming illustrates the complexity of the battle.

Glen Canyon serves as the command-and-control center for the seven dams above it.

“We push a button here, and generation starts in Colorado,” Miyagishima said.

Loss of generating capacity at Glen Canyon likely would raise electric costs for more than 5 million customers and increase greenhouse gas emissions created in offsetting a shutdown, experts say.

Furthermore, if the dam fails to produce electricity at a peak time, such as days of high heat when other hydroelectric power stations are taxed, blackouts in Western states, grid strain and unreliability could result, according to the 2022 Electric Reliability Assessment by the North American Electric Reliability Corp.

On a positive note, low water has enabled necessary maintenance work, which began in 2000, Miyagishima said. All transformers are being replaced, along with one of the turbines, and other improvements have brought the plant to 91% efficiency, Miyagishima said. Efficiency refers to the plant's ability to produce more power using less water, he said. The powerplant is 7% more efficient than it was 10 years ago because of new turbine runners, he added.

Also, alternative pipes are being installed to guarantee water for Page, Miyagishima said. The town was built specifically because of the dam, and roughly 50% of Page’s electricity comes from hydropower, said Hill, the general manager for Page Power and Water. It's now down to 20% because of the contracted lake.

Hill believes the problem has become a political tussle, with coal-fired power plants the victim and inadequate amounts of reliable renewable energy to replace what’s being removed from the marketplace.

“Energy is the fundamental building block to everything we do,” he said. “If our goal is less carbon footprint, we need nuclear power; solar is not going to cut it.”

Adding more demand with electric vehicles, for example, increases the need, he said.

“You start putting out all these electric vehicles, you’ve got to create that kilowatt-hour somewhere. Water? Solar? Wind? It’s just not enough.”

Concern that the nation’s electric grid won’t be able to handle an abundance of new electric vehicles, which need to be recharged every 300 miles, can be tempered, said Tim Jackson, president of the Colorado Automobile Dealers Association.

“Most of the EVs are charging in the middle of the night, when power is the least expensive and most readily available,” he said. “Which is why the power companies seem to not be as concerned as some about the grid.”

As of January, Colorado had more than 3,500 public electric vehicle fast-charging ports, the eighth-highest number in the nation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Lake tourism hangs on

Houseboat rentals are down, but waterways are crowded with canoes, kayaks, houseboats, fishing boats and tour vessels at the bottom of the Upper Colorado River Basin in Page. The fishing is good, and Lake Powell continues to be a magnificent, relaxing and exciting body of water, say a sampling of people using the waterway in late June.

Last summer, Laketime Houseboats in Page couldn’t launch boats because there weren’t ramps low enough to do so, said Belinda Hunter, one of the owners.

“We were off the water from July 18 to Sept. 23,” she said. “We lost probably 200 trips with an average of 20 people per trip, which had a pretty significant impact on our business.”

A new extendable ramp fixed the problem. “This year is looking good,” Hunter said. 

Jerry Hunt, a native of Page, was fishing off a dock at Wahweap Marina recently, and after waiting more than an hour, bass, including stripers, and catfish were biting. He mostly catches and releases, but if he's hungry, his haul heads home to the frying pan.

“The water’s been going down, and it’s been noticeable,” he said. “But recently it’s been rising about 3 inches a week.”

Steve and Diane McLean, from the Salt Lake City area of Utah, have visited Lake Powell every summer for decades.

Instead of measuring 7 to 8 miles from one side to the other, the lake has receded to 3 to 4 miles across, Steve McLean said.

Mammoth Rock, a landmark that sat in the middle of Wahweap Bay, is now completely out of the water.

The couple can’t waterski around it anymore, but “you can walk up to it,” McLean said.

An excursion in their houseboat can take more time and gas because of delays and backups on fewer channels. Sandy beaches have become cliffs in some areas, he said, and zigzagging between exposed rocks can be challenging.

But, “There’s plenty of places to play,” Diane McLean said. “You can do everything you could before. It just looks a little different.”

Said Capt. Scott Chambers, who leads boat tours, “We still have an enormous amount of lake. It’s an amazing place.”