Denver parents could learn as early as November whether their child’s school is on a closure list.

A new policy created in June by the Denver Public Schools Board of Education required the superintendent to present the closure list in October. But Superintendent Alex Marrero complained on Thursday that the new policy creates a short runway for staff.

October is when enrollment numbers across the state are finalized in what’s called the “October Count.” Generally, the count happens on Oct. 1 each year, unless the date falls on a weekend or holiday.

On Thursday, the board unanimously voted to extend the closure list deadline to November. But members also said they could amend the deadline in the future.

Initially, board members pushed back on Marrero’s request.

“I know it’s a tight timeline, Dr. Marrero, but I’m also thinking of the families,” said Director Xóchitl Gaytán, who represents the southwest region.

Historically, the Southwest region has shed the most students.

Gaytán expressed worries that unhappy constituents will overwhelm her and other board members after the list is made public.

“I think it’s unfair to put me in that position,” Gaytán said.

Thursday’s vote means a school closure list could be made public for the Nov. 21 board meeting.

The quick turnaround from the October count was intended to give parents information about possible campus closures in time for them to pursue other choices. 

Notably, Colorado law allows parents to register students outside their assigned neighborhood schools. Open enrollment in Denver is typically in January, although the date has not yet been set, DPS spokesperson Scott Pribble told The Denver Gazette on Friday.

The guardrails the board created in June prohibit district officials from using enrollment numbers to justify school closures. The policy was created a year after the board shuttered three schools using low enrollment.

Now, future recommendations must not create a “bright line criteria” that relies on enrollment minimums. Nor can officials use standardized test scores as a condition for consolidation.

The new policy also contained language — which board members struck Thursday at Marrero’s request — that would have required the superintendent to “equitably distributes the effects of changing demographics across the district.”

Marrero said he is sensitive to the issue, knowing “how damaging it has been to specific” neighborhoods.

“The reality is that low enrollment and building utilization is defined to specific regions,” Marrero said.

Southwest Denver, for example, had the greatest reductions in the youth population from 2010 to 2020, according to the district.

While immigrant students, primarily from South and Central America, buoyed the district’s enrollment last school year, this isn’t expected to alter the overall decline forecasted.

By 2028, Denver is expected to lose more than 6,300 school-aged children. This represents about 8% of the total enrollment in 2023.

‘We have too many schools’

The school-age student population in three of the district’s six regions are expected to decrease by more than 10% by 2028, according to a recent district analysis.

As enrollment continues to decline, schools in highly affected regions are expected to shoulder greater student losses.

Enrollment declines are also anticipated to have a significant impact on Latino students and those who qualify for free and reduced lunch.

Two-in-three students across the district qualify for free and reduced lunch.

While a growing proportion of district students are White, the percentage of Latino students has steadily declined. Latinos represent about half of the district’s student body.

The district’s Strategic Regional Analysis in the spring said these students — Latinos and those who are eligible for free and reduced lunch — disproportionately attend “lower utilization schools.”

The new policy suggests — as DPS officials have warned for years — more closures are coming.

Board members on Thursday were keenly aware of this.

“We need to consider that we are dealing with this year,” said Director Scott Esserman.

The last closures — Denver Discovery, Mathematics and Science Leadership Academy and Fairview Elementary — happened in March last year. All three schools had fewer than 120 students.

Parents complained bitterly that they were excluded from the process.

District officials had identified for closure 15 elementary and middle school campuses most affected by student declines. Seven of the 15 schools required instruction in English and Spanish, an indicator students have greater needs that require additional resources.

At the time, the district had 38 schools with fewer than 215 students, the threshold indicating a concerning enrollment level. Nearly 10% of district schools this past school year — or 20 campuses — had fewer than 215 students, nine with less than 120, district data shows.

While the new guidelines are clear about what the superintendent shouldn't do when closing a school, it is not as clear about the criteria that should be used to decide which schools to close.

Declining enrollment is a critical for school districts because it's tied to funding. Schools get a certain amount of funding per student. Experts have pointed to a combination of factors, notably lower birth rates, as factors driving enrollment declines as the city's demographics shift.

The district’s enrollment has been falling since student population hit a peak of 93,815 in 2019. Last fall, the district had 88,235 students enrolled — a 6% decline over the past five academic years.

Enrollment in the district’s elementary schools, which can be an indicator of future trends, has been dropping for the past decade.

The unparalleled growth in schools under former Superintendent Tom Boasberg may be to blame.

In 2008, a year before Boasberg took the helm, DPS had roughly 75,000 students and operated 146 schools. A decade later, DPS had added nearly 17,000 more students and 61 schools.

“Boasberg was like Oprah Winfrey, handing out schools left and right,” Andrew Lefkowits, co-chair of the Park Hills Neighbors for Equity in Education, said previously. “We have too many schools.”