Despite worry by critics of the push to eliminate natural gas for heating and cooling in commercial buildings, Colorado's largest utility company and the City of Denver maintain the energy infrastructure can handle the switch to electricity.
Xcel Energy, which provides energy in metro Denver, said it is preparing to meet the demands of building electrification and electric vehicle charging.
“We are planning the grid to meet the anticipated demands of beneficial electrification of buildings, transportation and others reliably and affordably,” Xcel Energy spokesperson Michelle Aguayo told The Denver Gazette. “Our Power Pathway transmission project and Electric Resource Plan, both of which were approved by the Commission last year, provide an important foundation for generating and delivering more clean energy that will support the city of Denver’s electrification and sustainability goals.”
Critics earlier expressed fears that switching buildings to electric space and hot water heating as part of a broader goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would overtax existing electrical lines.
Aguayo said the new loads will require “a coordinated effort across generation, transmission, and distribution,” and to facilitate the process, Xcel has created a new division focused on integrated system planning.
Denver, too, is confident that electrification will not overtax the system.
“The grid can handle the additional heating load,” said Chelsea Warren, a spokesperson for Denver’s Office of Climate Action, Sustainability, and Resiliency. “The electrical grid is sized for summertime peaks, and has decades of capacity before winter heating loads cause the system to switch to a winter peaking profile.”
Developers insist the lowest-cost way to heat a building is with natural gas. Most boilers, they say, are extremely efficient at using natural gas to heat the boiler directly than by burning it to produce electricity and then transmitting it to an electric boiler, which introduces inefficiencies.
Denver is beginning to phase-out natural gas heating and cooling systems in commercial buildings to achieve its greenhouse gas reduction goal of 100% renewable heating and cooling.
As of March 1, applicants for replacement equipment not willing to electrify will have to go through a more complicated permitting process to replace faulty units with new replacements.
And, starting on Jan 1, 2024, gas furnaces and water heaters will not be allowed in new commercial and multifamily construction. In 2025, the city will no longer issue permits for certain types of gas heating and cooling systems for existing commercial and multifamily buildings. And, after 2027, the city will no longer issue permits for any gas heating and cooling equipment in commercial buildings.
Warren, the city spokesperson, said for many buildings, "additional electrical capacity will not be needed.”
“Additionally, air source heat pumps — which deliver both heating and cooling — are many times more efficient than natural gas systems, so the total operational cost to heat the space in many cases will be lower,” she added.
Critics said there are problems with air-source heat pumps, including high cost, installation challenges in multi-family housing and questions of reliability during cold weather.
Englewood resident Tom Conroy said his experience with his air-source heat pump was less than satisfactory.
“Unless the unit has an underground gathering system, heat pumps stop generating any heat when the outdoor temperature drops to about 15 degrees Fahrenheit,” Conroy told The Denver Gazette in an email. “So, the units need a backup source to cover this. I learned the hard way when the subcontractor installed one without the backup.”
Other critics also worry about price tag of the transition.
City officials maintain that electrical equipment delivers the same comfort and reliability as natural gas at a comparable cost.
Previous analysis hints the expense will be significant. In its analysis last year of a law that requires the adoption of “green” building codes, the Common Sense Institute said it could cost homeowners statewide between $59 and $68 billion by 2031, exacerbating Colorado’s already acute housing shortage. And a state economic impact analysis of a proposed rule that seeks to reduce energy consumption now under consideration by state air pollution authorities could mean thousands of large building owners statewide face spending more than $3.1 billion by 2050 to comply.
Warren said Xcel was at the table during the creation of the city's electrification plan and that current capacity is not likely to be maxed out until more than 50% of all space and water heating has been electrified.
It’s unclear what has to happen by way of grid upgrades for the other 50% to be electrified to achieve Denver’s greenhouse gas emission goals.
"We know that the transition to electric is a big shift in the way we heat and cool our buildings,” Warren said. “The city is providing technical support and $30 million in financial assistance to help everyone from building owners to HVAC contractors prepare and install electric equipment."
