While it's not impossible for Lisa Calderón to overtake Kelly Brough and secure a spot in the runoff election for the next mayor of Denver, the math looks increasingly difficult for the current third placer.
This graph shows the last three vote tallies among the top contenders in the race for Denver mayor.
Mike Johnston, who has consistently led the count, and Brough have maintained their edge over the rest of the mayoral aspirants in the latest tally on Wednesday night. So far, Johnston holds 24.5% of the votes, with Brough at 20.6%, of nearly 150,000 ballots counted.
Calderón's share, in fact, increased to 17.37%, up from 15.9% in the previous tally, and she outperformed Brough in the last two ballot drops.
Back when there were about 65,000 left to count, Calderón needed to win 35% of the votes and keep Johnston and Brough's rate to about 25% and 22%, respectively to get a shot at the runoff election.
But at the 2 p.m. count, Calderón only secured 23% of about 12,000 votes counted.
She maintained that pace — at 23% — in the next tally at 5 p.m., when election officials counted nearly 30,000 votes.
The Denver Clerk and Recorder's Office said a little more than 23,000 ballots are left to be counted.
If Calderón also cornered 23% and Brough maintained her 16% share, Calderon would fall short by 3,200 votes.
Here's where the math looks steep for Calderón: In order to overtake Brough, she would need to win 38% of the 23,000 ballots left to count, which also means outperforming Johnston.
Again, this assumes that Brough gets 16% of the next tally.
But for Calderon to get to 38%, other candidates would have to significantly underperform.
Other permutations could get Calderón past Brough, including the latter significantly underperforming at the 2 p.m. count today. If Calderón gets 31% and Brough only secures 11%, Brough would find herself in third place.
