The Denver Gazette, in partnership with 9 News and Metropolitan State University conducted a poll including 820 Denver adults regarding the municipal election. Amongst those polled, favorites in the crowded mayoral field emerged, as well as key issues voters voted were, "one of the very most important for Denver to address in the next few years." Denver Government Reporter, Alex Edwards, breaks down the results here.
With less than two weeks until mail ballots ship out, Denver’s mayoral race appears to be completely up for grabs, according to an exclusive poll released Thursday.
The SurveyUSA poll of likely voters shows Lisa Calderón, former state Sen. Mike Johnston and former Denver Chamber of Commerce executive Kelly Brough sharing the lead in the 17-candidate field — though only barely — with 5% support for each, just outside the poll’s margin of error.
In a poll by The Denver Gazette, 9 News and Metro State University conducted by SurveyUSA, 820 Denver adult respondents chose the issues they believe are, "one of the most important for Denver to address in next few years."
A whopping 58% of those surveyed say they’re undecided.
The poll, commissioned by The Denver Gazette/Colorado Politics, 9News and Metropolitan State University, also shows state Sen. Chris Hansen and at-large councilwoman Debbie Ortega have 4% support each, with state Rep. Leslie Herod, Al Gardner and Thomas Wolf bunched up behind them at 3% apiece.
The poll is the first of the mayor’s race done by media outlets.
Pollsters surveyed 820 people, and identified 594 likely Denver voters Feb. 21-28 using a combination of landline calls and online questionnaires. Its credibility interval — similar to a margin of error — is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Three candidates — Trinidad Rodriguez, Terrance Roberts and Andy Rougeot — polled at 2% support, followed by four candidates who garnered 1% each: Renate Behrens, Kwame Spearman, Aurelio Martinez, and Ean Thomas Tafoya. Candidates James Walsh and Robert Treta didn’t register with 0% support.
The new poll’s results are similar to a survey conducted earlier in February that found 60% of respondents undecided and none of the candidates emerging from single-digit support. That poll found Brough in the lead, followed by Herod and Johnston, though the distance between candidates was within the poll’s margin of error.
Ballots start going out on March 14 and are due back to election officials by 7 p.m. April 4. If no one clears 50% in the first round, the top two finishers head into a run-off election in June.
Denver Mayor Michael Hancock, first elected in 2011, faces term limits.
The pollsters found some of the candidates performing better among some groups of voters.
Herod holds the lead among those identifying as “very liberal,” with 14% support, followed by Calderón, who has 12% of that group. Calderón is tied for the lead with Ortega among Latino voters, each scoring 8%.
Johnston enjoys the support of 15% of Denver’s Black voters, nearly tied with Herod’s 14%. Additionally, Johnston has more than twice as much support among men as he does among women.
Both Brough and Hansen do better with older voters, with 8% and 7% support, respectively, among respondents age 65 and older.
Gardner, for his part, gets nearly all his support from younger voters, with 6% of those age 18-34 backing him but without any measurable support in those age 50 and older.
Rodriguez is similarly situated, with 7% support among those 34 and younger and none among voters 35 and older.
Rougeot, the only Republican in the field, has just 5% support among the city’s Republican voters. He does slightly better with self-identified conservatives, getting 7% with that group.
The Denver Gazette will host a forum to give voters the chance to meet and hear from the candidates on March 22 starting at 8:30 a.m. The forum will be held in the Anschutz Education 2 South Building, 13121 E. 17th Place in Aurora.
Visit denvergazette.com/mayor to register for the event and pose a question to the candidates.
